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So here it is folks, just one week left in the season and it looks like it's two teams coming down the stretch. Just a single point separate our top two teams as The Fred Sox regain first place from High Hard One this week. Who's going to win this thing? Well that's still anybody's guess. However, our experts here at The Commish's Office have methodically broken down the rankings and have a prediction to make. So without further ado, let's go to the category by category analysis!
BATTING AVERAGE
The stats that count:
| Team | Value | Pts |
| Sucks 2 B Me | .2817 | 15 |
| High Hard One | .2815 | 14 |
Comments:
High Hard One stands to gain a point this week with a good hitting finish. The Fred Sox are locked into first place, a full .0076 ahead of the nearest competitor.
High/Low Point Potential:
High Hard One: +1/-0
The Fred Sox: +0/-0
HOMERS
The stats that count:
| Team | Value | Pts |
| The Quat Thrusts! | 270 | 14 |
| High Hard One | 269 | 13 |
Comments:
If High Hard One can break out the lumber and out homer the Thrusts! by one this week they'll gain another much needed point. However, with Dougie Quat playing the role of spoiler and employing five extra bats in his expansion slots, this will be no small feat for HHO. Again, The Fred Sox appear locked into their current position in this category, 6 clouts behind the next competitor above and 13 dingers ahead of their nearest competition from below.
High/Low Point Potential:
High Hard One: +1/-0
The Fred Sox: +0/-0
RBIs
The stats that count:
| Team | Value | Pts |
| He-Man Yankee Haters Club | 1008 | 12 1/2 |
| The Fred Sox | 1008 | 12 1/2 |
Comments:
With High Hard One locked into first place (54 ribbies up), this is where The Fred Sox can open up ground by breaking out of their tie with the He-Man Yankee Haters Club. The Breaking Balls loom 10 ribs behind Fred, but that cushion seems safe for now.
High/Low Point Potential:
High Hard One: + 0/- 0
The Fred Sox: +1/2/-1/2
STOLEN BASES
The stats that count:
N/A
Comments:
Both teams appear locked into their current positions in the steals category. The Fred Sox are 5 away from Vandalay and 28 ahead of the Breaking Balls. High Hard One is a long 4 swipes away from catching the Breaking Balls and 7 above the Piano Movers. Unless someone's got Vince Coleman tucked up his sleeve (firecrackers and all!), no one's moving anywhere in this category.
High/Low Point Potential:
High Hard One: +0/-0
The Fred Sox: +0/-0
RUNS
The stats that count:
| Team | Value | Pts |
| The Intentional Walts | 1097 | 16 |
| The Fred Sox | 1096 | 15 |
Comments:
Another category in which the Fred Sox can gain some needed insurance points. If just a one more base runner crosses the dish for The Sox than does for the Walts this next week, then his Fredness will gain another point. High Hard One's sitting in third here but 25 runs back from The Fred Sox is just too much ground to make up in a single week.
High/Low Point Potential:
High Hard One: +0/-0
The Fred Sox: +1/-0
WINS
The stats that count:
| Team | Value | Pts |
| Vandalay Industries | 106 | 15 1/2 |
| The Fred Sox | 106 | 15 1/2 |
| … | | |
| … | | |
| R D B | 85 | 10 |
| 1-800-RATS | 84 | 7 1/2 |
| High Hard One | 84 | 7 1/2 |
| You're Killing Me Smalls | 84 | 7 1/2 |
| Half Drunk & Perfect | 84 | 7 1/2 |
Comments:
A whole lot can happen here in this category and what takes place this week in the Wins race may decide who wins this league. The Fred Sox are looking at a potential half point gain if the pitching staff can eke out at least one more win than Vandalay's hurlers this week. However, a little lower in the standings is where things get really interesting! High Hard One is currently smack in the middle of a 5 team pack, with a potential plus 2 ˝ if they can break out of the pack. Conversely (not the sneaker, that would be Chuck Taylor-ly), should HHO falter and drop to the back of the pack, it's a point and a half drop, a potentially devastating loss with things this close!
High/Low Point Potential:
High Hard One: +2 1/2/- 1 1/2
The Fred Sox: + 1/2/- 1/2
SAVES
The stats that count:
| Team | Value | Pts |
| Sucks 2 B Me | 103 | 16 |
| 1-800-RATS | 102 | 14 1/2 |
| High Hard One | 102 | 14 1/2 |
| … | | |
| … | | |
| The Fred Sox | 33 | 5 |
| Babes Piano Movers | 32 | 4 |
Comments:
High Hard One's had this category pegged for weeks now and it looks like they're ready to make their move. With John Smoltz off the DL and a whole slew of pseduo-closers on the roster, they trail Sucks 2 Be Me by a mere one game ending save. Who likes their chances for a point and a half move here? However, don't count out the Rats who plan to play spoiler with McDougal, Rivera, Hasegawa and Beck looking for the $5 category prize. And lower in the standings if the Piano Man can find a way to coax one of those three inning blowout saves from one of his pitchers (he has no true closer on the roster), then perhaps The Fred Sox lose a halfer.
High/Low Point Potential:
High Hard One: +1 1/2/- 1/2
The Fred Sox: +0 /- 1/2
ERA
The stats that count:
| Team | Value | Pts |
| Vandalay Industries | 3.885 | 13 |
| High Hard One | 3.891 | 12 |
Comments:
The Fred Sox are locked into 2nd place here (as Shanley takes the category wire-to-wire), but HHO is just a mere .006 behind Vandalay. As in wins, it looks like a good pitching week may net High Hard One an additional point.
High/Low Point Potential:
High Hard One: +1/-0
The Fred Sox: +0/-0
RATIO
The stats that count:
| Team | Value | Pts |
| The Fred Sox | 1.251 | 15 |
| Babe's Piano Movers | 1.256 | 14 |
Comments:
Is .005 too much ground to make up in one week? Sing us a sweet pitching song Mr. Piano Man and The Fred Sox drop a point back. High Hard One seems locked into their spot, .013 away from CSI:Fenway Park and .008 ahead of Smalls.
High/Low Point Potential:
High Hard One: +0/-0
The Fred Sox: +0/-1
STRIKEOUTS
The stats that count:
| Team | Value | Pts |
| High Hard One | 978 | 8 |
| R D B | 976 | 6 1/2 |
| The Quat Thrusts! | 976 | 6 1/2 |
| You're Killing Me Smalls | 975 | 5 |
Comments:
Yet another pitching category where High Hard One stands to fall hard and fast if they don't hold their ground. A mere striking out of the side (3 K's), stands between HHO and a 3 point deficit. Along with Wins, Strikeouts may very well seal HHO's fate one way or the other! The Fred Sox have a 20 K cushion in both directions, so unless Roger Clemens is facing the Tigers back in his youth, they're not going anywhere.
High/Low Point Potential:
High Hard One: +0/-3
The Fred Sox: +0/-0
So, figuring out the potential gains and losses in each category, assuming a plus gain where no minus potential exists and vice versa, averaging out the plus/minus potential where both exist, then adding up the columns we see what could potentially happen this week:
| High Hard One | The Fred Sox |
| Batting Average | + 1 | 0 |
| Homers | + 1| 0 | |
| RBIs | 0 | 0 |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | 0 |
| Runs | 0 | + 1 |
| Wins | + 1 | 0 |
| Saves | + 1 | - 1/2 |
| ERA | + 1 | 0 |
| Ratio | 0 | - 1 |
| Strikeouts | - 3 | 0 |
| | |
| Total | + 2 | - 1/2 |
Which would give High Hard One a 2 ˝ point gain over The Fred Sox this week, a point and a half more than they would need to make up the current one point deficit and thus this column predicts that High Hard One takes the title by a mere one and a half points in the closest race in league history! Now all they got to do is go out there and have a good pitching week to make this prediction come true. And yes folks. That's why they play the games! Good luck to both teams this next week, as all analysis aside, this thing really can go either way and turn on a single unit of any category. But no matter what the outcome, unless somebody pulls a surprise +10 out of their arse, er magic hat, we're gonna have a French champion and the first league champion to have a draft pick in the Top 5 (The Fred Sox picked 5th, High Hard One 1st). 'til next week, when we reveal our new champion…
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